From: "William J. Rapaport" Date: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 12:31:49 -0400 (EDT) To: has@a.gp.cs.cmu.edu Subject: citation needed for your prediction about chess Cc: jnhilf@a.gp.cs.cmu.edu, rapaport@cse.Buffalo.EDU Dear Professor Simon: I am writing a paper about the Turing test and want to cite your prediction, made, I believe, in 1957, that a computer would beat the world chess champion within the decade. If that was made in print, could you tell me the source? Thanks. -Bill Rapaport ------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Rapaport Associate Professor of Computer Science Adjunct Professor of Philosophy Member, Center for Cognitive Science 226 Bell Hall | (716) 645-3180 x 112 Dept. of Computer Science & Engineering | fax: (716) 645-3464 Box 602000 | rapaport@cse.buffalo.edu SUNY Buffalo | http://www.cse.buffalo.edu/~rapaport Buffalo, NY 14260-2000 ======================================================================== To: "William J. Rapaport" cc: has@mm.gp.cs.cmu.edu, jnhilf@mm.gp.cs.cmu.edu, Herb_Simon@v.gp.cs.cmu.edu Subject: Re: citation needed for your prediction about chess Date: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 13:35:25 -0400 From: Herb Simon Dear Professor Rapaport: Our prediction was made at an ORSA meeting in 1957. It was published as Simon and Newell, "Heuristic Problem Solving: The Next Advance in Operations Research" Operations Research 6:1-10 (1958). To understand our (four) predictions, and the reasons why we made them (they had nothing to do with the Turing Test), I suggest that you read the entire article. You can also find it reprinted in Volume I of my Models of Bounded Rationality, pp. 380-389 (MIT Press). Just for your own information, (a) I regard the predictions as a highly successful exercise in futurology, and (b) placed in the equivalent position today, I would make them again, and for the same reasons. (Some people never seem to learn.) Sincerely yours, Herb Simon